Drivers and Future Prospects of Political Reform in the Arab Gulf: A Study in the Phase of Regional and International Transformations

Abstract

This study analyzes the issue of political reform in the Arab Gulf states amid accelerated regional and international transformations, particularly following the Arab Spring and the ensuing internal and external pressures on regional political systems. It proceeds from the hypothesis that political stagnation and the absence of effective popular participation constitute one of the primary causes of internal crises, placing regimes before challenges related to legitimacy, stability, and responsiveness to citizens' demands. The study discusses the evolution of the concept of political reform—from being perceived as a tool of foreign intervention or international conspiracy to an urgent internal necessity imposed by shifts in the international environment and its conflicts, including proxy wars. It highlights the specificity of Gulf governance systems, which rely on traditional loyalties, while raising questions about these regimes' capacity to adapt to current transformations. The study concludes by forecasting two main scenarios for the region's future: either the resilience of regimes through genuine gradual reforms, or entry into paths of disintegration should the trust gap between rulers and ruled persist.